Salzburg U19 1–1 Genk U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Genk U19

K. Adeyemi 32'

S. Vandermeulen 80' (pen)

9/17/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1DAS.GOLDBERG Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Salzburg U1936%

×Draw21%

Genk U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchGenk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.04

Salzburg U19

1.88

Genk U19

2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

2.65

creates per match

2.50

1.59

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.65

Genk U19

2.50

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.59

Genk U19

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Genk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Genk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

57%

Salzburg U19 or Genk U19

79%

Draw or Genk U19

64%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

19%

Genk U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

85%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

56%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

29%

Genk U19 1+ goals

87%

Genk U19 2+ goals

60%

Genk U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Genk U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Genk U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.65 + Genk U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.88

Genk U19 attack 2.50 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Genk U19 scores more

43%

Genk U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Genk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

K. Adeyemi

46'

A. Prass← Luis Phelipe

58'

M. Didden← Ismael Saibari

66'

S. Diawara← A. Németh

69'

A. Svoboda← B. Šeško

69'

O. Bekar← M. Kjærgaard

80'

S. VandermeulenPenalty

86'

A. Cuypers← B. Limbombe

90+1'

S. Major← L. Sučić

Salzburg

Genk

1

Leysen

3

⚽

2

5

4

8

6

▼

Saibari

9

▼

Németh

11

▼

7

10

1

18

4

3

13

6

25

▼

Sučić

11

▼

Phelipe

8

▼

Kjærgaard

7

⚽

Adeyemi

29

▼

Šeško

Manager: F. Kramer

46'▲A. Prass←▼Luis Phelipe

69'▲A. Svoboda←▼B. Šeško

69'▲O. Bekar←▼M. Kjærgaard

90+1'▲S. Major←▼L. Sučić

Salzburg U19 substitutes

27Prass26Svoboda19Bekar16Major23Böckle31Schröcker5Aigner

Manager: K. Van Dessel

58'▲M. Didden←▼Ismael Saibari

66'▲S. Diawara←▼A. Németh

86'▲A. Cuypers←▼B. Limbombe

Genk U19 substitutes

15Didden18Diawara17Cuypers16Dwomoh40Bastiaens14Lambrix12Et-Taibi