Salzburg U19 2–0 Dinamo Zagreb U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Zagreb U19

T. Sahin 90'

K. Konaté 71'

10/5/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Greisbergers Betten-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Salzburg U1960%

×Draw20%

Dinamo Zagreb U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.26

Salzburg U19

2.28

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.26

Salzburg U19 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

2.65

creates per match

0.91

1.60

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.65

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.60

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

80%

Salzburg U19 or Dinamo Zagreb U19

80%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U19

40%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

38%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

90%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

66%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

39%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Dinamo Zagreb U19 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.65 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.28

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 0.91 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

60%

level

20%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

20%

Salzburg U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Gevorgyan

21'

A. Krdzalic

37'

M. Yeo

44'

R. Hofer

46'

D. Lechner← M. Yeo

46'

D. Bijelić← M. Gevorgyan

57'

D. Lechner

60'

V. Sulzbacher← Z. Jánó

61'

F. Crescenti← E. Havel

61'

M. Tonon← M. Brkljača

71'

K. Konaté↳ T. Sahin

74'

F. Čuljak← L. Gubijan

74'

L. Vrbančić← M. Šakota

74'

P. Majdandžić← F. Topić

75'

L. Reischl← M. Pejazic

86'

L. Vrbancic

89'

I. Cvetko← M. Živković

90'

T. Sahin

Salzburg

Dinamo

1

Pršlja

4

Katinić

5

▼

Živković

3

Ruškovačk

2

▼

Gubijan

6

▼

Brkljača

9

▼

10

8

7

11

▼

1

8

33

35

▼

Gevorgyan

19

Moswitzer

20

▼

Pejazic

22

⚽A

Sahin

29

▼

Jánó

32

▼

Yeo

7

▼

Havel

17

⚽

Konaté

Manager: F. Ingolitsch

46'▲D. Lechner←▼M. Yeo

46'▲D. Bijelić←▼M. Gevorgyan

60'▲V. Sulzbacher←▼Z. Jánó

61'▲F. Crescenti←▼E. Havel

75'▲L. Reischl←▼M. Pejazic

Salzburg U19 substitutes

14Lechner38Bijelić30Sulzbacher40Crescenti9Reischl5Žiković21Tóth

Manager: I. Senzen

61'▲M. Tonon←▼M. Brkljača

74'▲F. Čuljak←▼L. Gubijan

74'▲L. Vrbančić←▼M. Šakota

74'▲P. Majdandžić←▼F. Topić

89'▲I. Cvetko←▼M. Živković

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

16Tonon15Čuljak17Vrbančić14Majdandžić13Cvetko18Gec12Zrilić

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19

Salzburg U19 beat Dinamo Zagreb U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 5, 2022.

Goals: K. Konaté (71'), T. Sahin (90').

The match was played at Greisbergers Betten-Arena in Grödig.

Salzburg U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19