Salzburg U19 4–1 Derby County U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Derby County U19

L. Sučić 90+4'

C. Adamu 70', 45+1'

N. Seiwald 3'

T. Wilson 17'

3/4/2020

UEFA Youth League · 8th FinalsDAS.GOLDBERG Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Salzburg U1950%

×Draw21%

Derby County U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchDerby County U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.64

Salzburg U19

2.17

Derby County U19

1.64

Salzburg U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

1.67

1.61

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.67

Derby County U19

1.67

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.61

Derby County U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Derby County U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Derby County U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

71%

Salzburg U19 or Derby County U19

79%

Draw or Derby County U19

50%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

29%

Derby County U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

64%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

36%

Derby County U19 1+ goals

81%

Derby County U19 2+ goals

49%

Derby County U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Derby County U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Derby County U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.67 + Derby County U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Derby County U19 attack 1.67 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

Derby County U19 scores more

29%

Salzburg U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

N. Seiwald

17'

T. Wilson↳ J. Charles

19'

J. Brown

45+1'

C. Adamu↳ L. Sučić

46'

A. Oroz← B. Okoh

65'

M. Bardell← L. Thompson

70'

73'

73'

76'

79'

81'

83'

86'

87'

87'

J. Rogers← J. Charles

90+1'

S. Major

90+3'

E. Cashin

90+4'

L. Sučić

Salzburg

Derby

1

6

3

8

10

5

4

▼

Thompson

11

A

▼

Charles

9

Stretton

7

⚽

2

1

4

3

24

33

▼

Okoh

27

▼

Prass

13

⚽

Seiwald

25

⚽A

Sučić

15

▼

Anselm

9

⚽2

▼

Adamu

7

A

▼

Adeyemi

Manager: F. Kramer

46'▲A. Oroz←▼B. Okoh

79'▲B. Šeško←▼K. Adeyemi

83'▲C. Bukta←▼C. Adamu

86'▲S. Aigner←▼A. Prass

87'▲S. Major←▼T. Anselm

Salzburg U19 substitutes

18Oroz29Šeško37Bukta5Aigner16Major23Böckle31Schröcker

Manager: J. Walker

65'▲M. Bardell←▼L. Thompson

87'▲J. Rogers←▼J. Charles

Derby County U19 substitutes

14Bardell15Rogers18Solomon13Halwax12Matthews16Cybulski17Aghatise

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Derby County U19

Salzburg U19 beat Derby County U19 4-1 in UEFA Youth League on March 4, 2020.

Goals: N. Seiwald (3'), T. Wilson (17'), C. Adamu (45+1', 70'), L. Sučić (90+4').

The match was played at DAS.GOLDBERG Stadion in Grödig.

Salzburg U19 vs Derby County U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Derby County U19