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Salyut-Belgorod vs Peresvet Podolsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
5/28/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 10Stadion Salyut Belgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Salyut-Belgorod64%
×Draw19%
Peresvet Podolsk16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salyut-Belgorod
2.26
Peresvet Podolsk
1.05

Salyut-Belgorod creates 115% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 42 away

creates per match

Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Peresvet Podolsk
1.24

allows per match

Salyut-Belgorod
0.87
Peresvet Podolsk
2.52

finishing

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salyut-Belgorod ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Salyut-Belgorod or draw
84%
Salyut-Belgorod or Peresvet Podolsk
81%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
36%

Winning margin

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
41%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
89%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
66%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
39%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
65%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
28%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
80%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salyut-Belgorod at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.87 · 83 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salyut-Belgorod attack 2.00 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.26

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Salyut-Belgorod scores more
64%
level
19%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
16%

Salyut-Belgorod at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Salyut-Belgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Salyut-Belgorod 4–1 Peresvet Podolsk

Salyut-Belgorod beat Peresvet Podolsk 4-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut Belgorod in Belgorod.