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Salyut-Belgorod vs Chertanovo Moscow — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
8/12/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 5Stadion Salyut Belgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Salyut-Belgorod31%
×Draw27%
Chertanovo Moscow42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salyut-Belgorod
1.11
Chertanovo Moscow
1.33

Chertanovo Moscow creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Salyut-Belgorod
0.78
Chertanovo Moscow
0.67

allows per match

Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.44

finishing

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salyut-Belgorod ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salyut-Belgorod or draw
58%
Salyut-Belgorod or Chertanovo Moscow
73%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
69%

Winning margin

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
12%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
67%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
30%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
10%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
74%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
38%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
43%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salyut-Belgorod at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salyut-Belgorod attack 0.78 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.11

Chertanovo Moscow attack 0.67 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salyut-Belgorod scores more
31%
level
27%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
42%

Chertanovo Moscow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salyut-Belgorod vs Chertanovo Moscow

Salyut-Belgorod and Chertanovo Moscow drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut Belgorod in Belgorod.