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Salyut-Belgorod vs Balashikha — Second League - Group 3 2020

Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Balashikha
Balashikha
7/16/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Salyut Belgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salyut-Belgorod71%
×Draw19%
Balashikha11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salyut-Belgorod
2.12
Balashikha
0.67

Salyut-Belgorod creates 216% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Balashikha
0.47

allows per match

Salyut-Belgorod
0.87
Balashikha
2.24

finishing

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par
Balashikha+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salyut-Belgorod ↓

Balashikha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Salyut-Belgorod or draw
89%
Salyut-Belgorod or Balashikha
81%
Draw or Balashikha
29%

Winning margin

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
46%
Balashikha wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
88%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
62%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
35%
Balashikha 1+ goals
49%
Balashikha 2+ goals
15%
Balashikha 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
87%
Balashikha (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salyut-Belgorod at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.87 · 83 matches

Balashikha away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salyut-Belgorod attack 2.00 + Balashikha defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.12

Balashikha attack 0.47 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Salyut-Belgorod scores more
71%
level
19%
Balashikha scores more
11%

Salyut-Belgorod at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Salyut-Belgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salyut-Belgorod vs Balashikha

Salyut-Belgorod beat Balashikha 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut Belgorod in Belgorod.