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Salyut-Belgorod vs Avangard Kursk — Cup 2019

Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
O. Dolgalev 20'
A. Filippov 19'
8/23/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Salyut Belgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Salyut-Belgorod69%
×Draw18%
Avangard Kursk13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salyut-Belgorod
2.27
Avangard Kursk
0.85

Salyut-Belgorod creates 167% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Salyut-Belgorod
1.88
Avangard Kursk
0.33

allows per match

Salyut-Belgorod
1.38
Avangard Kursk
2.67

finishing

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salyut-Belgorod ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Salyut-Belgorod or draw
87%
Salyut-Belgorod or Avangard Kursk
82%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
31%

Winning margin

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
46%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
90%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
66%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
39%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
57%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
21%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
85%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salyut-Belgorod at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salyut-Belgorod attack 1.88 + Avangard Kursk defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Avangard Kursk attack 0.33 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Salyut-Belgorod scores more
69%
level
18%
Avangard Kursk scores more
13%

Salyut-Belgorod at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Salyut-Belgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. Filippov
20'
O. Dolgalev
74'
Ivanteev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salyut-Belgorod vs Avangard Kursk

Salyut-Belgorod beat Avangard Kursk 2-0 in Cup on August 23, 2023.

Goals: A. Filippov (19'), O. Dolgalev (20').

The match was played at Stadion Salyut Belgorod in Belgorod.