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Cercle Brugge vs Zulte Waregem — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem
12/21/2019Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 20Jan Breydel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Cercle Brugge46%
×Draw23%
Zulte Waregem31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.73
Zulte Waregem
1.38

Cercle Brugge creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.67
Zulte Waregem
1.27

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.48
Zulte Waregem
1.79

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.19scores less
Zulte Waregem+0.20scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Zulte Waregem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
69%
Cercle Brugge or Zulte Waregem
77%
Draw or Zulte Waregem
54%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
24%
Zulte Waregem wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
82%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
52%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
25%
Zulte Waregem 1+ goals
75%
Zulte Waregem 2+ goals
40%
Zulte Waregem 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
60%
Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

Zulte Waregem away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.79 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.67 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Zulte Waregem attack 1.27 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
46%
level
23%
Zulte Waregem scores more
31%

Cercle Brugge at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 2–0 Zulte Waregem

Cercle Brugge beat Zulte Waregem 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Jan Breydel Stadium in Bruges.