SalPa 2–2 VJS: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

SalPa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

VJS

O. Jakonen 32'

G. Voca 4' (pen)

N. Kaijasilta 54' (pen)

A. Babiker 11'

7/4/2026

Ykkönen · Group StageSalon urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SalPa42%

×Draw23%

VJS35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalPaExpected goals in this matchVJS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.59

SalPa

1.76

VJS

1.59

SalPa creates 11% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

2.09

creates per match

1.86

1.32

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

SalPa

2.09

VJS

1.86

allows per match

SalPa

1.32

VJS

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SalPa+0.00on par

VJS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SalPa ↓

VJS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

SalPa or draw

65%

SalPa or VJS

77%

Draw or VJS

58%

Winning margin

SalPa wins by 2+

22%

VJS wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

SalPa 1+ goals

83%

SalPa 2+ goals

52%

SalPa 3+ goals

26%

VJS 1+ goals

80%

VJS 2+ goals

47%

VJS 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

SalPa (draw refunded)

55%

VJS (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SalPa at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

VJS away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SalPa attack 2.09 + VJS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.76

VJS attack 1.86 + SalPa defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SalPa scores more

42%

level

23%

VJS scores more

35%

SalPa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

G. VocaPenalty

11'

29'

32'

38'

46'

S. Kamara← J. Mabinda

46'

J. Merinen← O. Blommendahl

54'

N. KaijasiltaPenalty

61'

Y. Miyazaki← M. Lulli

61'

S. Kadowaki← J. Kostian

68'

O. Ojala← A. Babiker

68'

J. Holopainen← J. Rahja

77'

78'

82'

83'

85'

A. Achenchab← D. Hvidberg

87'

R. Ruponen← E. Rrustemi

90'

Missed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SalPa vs VJS

SalPa and VJS drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on July 4, 2026.

Goals: G. Voca (4' pen), A. Babiker (11'), O. Jakonen (32'), N. Kaijasilta (54' pen).

The match was played at Salon urheilupuisto in Salo.

SalPa vs VJS — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SalPa vs VJS