SalPa 4–3 KuPS Akatemia: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

SalPa

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

KuPS Akatemia

J. Meura 80'

M. Lulli 45'

O. Jakonen 22'

G. Voca 5'

D. Huttunen 51'

A. Baseme 47'

L. Paasisalo 29'

6/12/2026

Ykkönen · Group StageSalon urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SalPa56%

×Draw20%

KuPS Akatemia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalPaExpected goals in this matchKuPS Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.41

SalPa

2.22

KuPS Akatemia

1.41

SalPa creates 57% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

2.09

creates per match

1.50

1.32

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

SalPa

2.09

KuPS Akatemia

1.50

allows per match

SalPa

1.32

KuPS Akatemia

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SalPa+0.00on par

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SalPa ↓

KuPS Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

SalPa or draw

76%

SalPa or KuPS Akatemia

80%

Draw or KuPS Akatemia

44%

Winning margin

SalPa wins by 2+

34%

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SalPa 1+ goals

89%

SalPa 2+ goals

65%

SalPa 3+ goals

38%

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals

76%

KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals

41%

KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SalPa (draw refunded)

70%

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SalPa at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

KuPS Akatemia away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SalPa attack 2.09 + KuPS Akatemia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.22

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.50 + SalPa defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SalPa scores more

56%

level

20%

KuPS Akatemia scores more

24%

SalPa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

22'

27'

29'

36'

45'

47'

51'

56'

68'

A. Leivonen← D. Huttunen

74'

J. Kostian← M. Lulli

76'

E. Karkkainen← L. Paasisalo

80'

J. Meura

81'

E. Rrustemi← Y. Miyazaki

86'

K. Haarma← K. Prince Ume

86'

S. Kantelinen← R. Tikkanen

89'

J. Kostian

SalPa

KuPS

1

Silen

3

▼

Tikkanen

4

Hukkanen

6

Balde

7

⚽

▼

Paasisalo

8

Kivijarvi

9

⚽

▼

Huttunen

13

Tuomainen

14

Hautakang

19

▼

Ume

26

⚽

Baseme

30

Munukka

3

⚽

Meura

4

Dementjef

7

Rrustemi

9

⚽

▼

Lulli

10

⚽

Voca

18

Poysa

20

⚽

Jakonen

22

Kadowaki

24

▼

Miyazaki

28

Seidu

Manager: Ilkka Virtanen

74'▲J. Kostian←▼M. Lulli

81'▲E. Rrustemi←▼Y. Miyazaki

SalPa substitutes

12Rintamaki5Pan11Rrustemi13Kostian14Ranta15Heikkila17Mohammadi23Ruponen

Manager: Juho Neuvonen

68'▲A. Leivonen←▼D. Huttunen

76'▲E. Karkkainen←▼L. Paasisalo

86'▲K. Haarma←▼K. Prince Ume

86'▲S. Kantelinen←▼R. Tikkanen

KuPS Akatemia substitutes

12Aimola20Karkkainen23Mattila24Leivonen25Haarma30Kantelinen

Ykkönen: SalPa 4–3 KuPS Akatemia

SalPa beat KuPS Akatemia 4-3 in Ykkönen on June 12, 2026.

Goals: G. Voca (5'), O. Jakonen (22'), L. Paasisalo (29'), M. Lulli (45'), A. Baseme (47'), D. Huttunen (51'), J. Meura (80').

The match was played at Salon urheilupuisto in Salo.

SalPa vs KuPS Akatemia — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: SalPa 4–3 KuPS Akatemia