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SalPa vs Inter Turku II — Ykkönen 2026

SalPa
SalPa
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Inter Turku II
Inter Turku II
4/24/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageSalon urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SalPa53%
×Draw19%
Inter Turku II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SalPa
2.45
Inter Turku II
1.74

SalPa creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

SalPa
2.19
Inter Turku II
2.15

allows per match

SalPa
1.33
Inter Turku II
2.70

finishing

SalPa+0.00on par
Inter Turku II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SalPa ↓

Inter Turku II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

SalPa or draw
73%
SalPa or Inter Turku II
81%
Draw or Inter Turku II
47%

Winning margin

SalPa wins by 2+
33%
Inter Turku II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SalPa 1+ goals
91%
SalPa 2+ goals
70%
SalPa 3+ goals
44%
Inter Turku II 1+ goals
82%
Inter Turku II 2+ goals
52%
Inter Turku II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SalPa (draw refunded)
66%
Inter Turku II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SalPa at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Inter Turku II away — creates 2.15, concedes 2.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SalPa attack 2.19 + Inter Turku II defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.45

Inter Turku II attack 2.15 + SalPa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SalPa scores more
53%
level
19%
Inter Turku II scores more
27%

SalPa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SalPa vs Inter Turku II

Inter Turku II beat SalPa 3-2 in Ykkönen on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Salon urheilupuisto in Salo.