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SalPa vs Gnistan — Ykkönen 2018

SalPa
SalPa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Gnistan
Gnistan
6/17/2023YkkönenYkkönen · Round 11Salon Urheilupuisto Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SalPa50%
×Draw22%
Gnistan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SalPa
2.00
Gnistan
1.45

SalPa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 51 away

creates per match

SalPa
2.19
Gnistan
1.57

allows per match

SalPa
1.33
Gnistan
1.82

finishing

SalPa+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SalPa ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SalPa or draw
72%
SalPa or Gnistan
78%
Draw or Gnistan
50%

Winning margin

SalPa wins by 2+
29%
Gnistan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SalPa 1+ goals
86%
SalPa 2+ goals
59%
SalPa 3+ goals
32%
Gnistan 1+ goals
77%
Gnistan 2+ goals
42%
Gnistan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SalPa (draw refunded)
64%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SalPa at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SalPa attack 2.19 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.00

Gnistan attack 1.57 + SalPa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SalPa scores more
50%
level
22%
Gnistan scores more
28%

SalPa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SalPa 1 – 3 Gnistan

Gnistan beat SalPa 3-1 in Ykkönen on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Salon Urheilupuisto Stadion in Salo.