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Salmrohr vs Emmelshausen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Salmrohr
Salmrohr
CANC
13:30
Emmelshausen
Emmelshausen
2/13/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 18Salmtalstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Salmrohr36%
×Draw23%
Emmelshausen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salmrohr
1.54
Emmelshausen
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Salmrohr
1.07
Emmelshausen
0.73

allows per match

Salmrohr
2.60
Emmelshausen
2.00

finishing

Salmrohr+0.00on par
Emmelshausen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salmrohr ↓

Emmelshausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Salmrohr or draw
59%
Salmrohr or Emmelshausen
77%
Draw or Emmelshausen
64%

Winning margin

Salmrohr wins by 2+
17%
Emmelshausen wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Salmrohr 1+ goals
79%
Salmrohr 2+ goals
45%
Salmrohr 3+ goals
20%
Emmelshausen 1+ goals
81%
Emmelshausen 2+ goals
50%
Emmelshausen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Salmrohr (draw refunded)
46%
Emmelshausen (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salmrohr at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Emmelshausen away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salmrohr attack 1.07 + Emmelshausen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Emmelshausen attack 0.73 + Salmrohr defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Salmrohr scores more
36%
level
23%
Emmelshausen scores more
41%

Emmelshausen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Emmelshausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salmrohr vs Emmelshausen — Match Preview

Salmrohr face Emmelshausen on February 13, 2021 in this Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Salmrohr host Emmelshausen at Salmtalstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.