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Salmrohr vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Salmrohr
Salmrohr
FT
1 – 4
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
9/19/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 4Salmtalstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Salmrohr33%
×Draw22%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salmrohr
1.60
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.92

Alemannia Waldalgesheim creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 43 away

creates per match

Salmrohr
1.07
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.23

allows per match

Salmrohr
2.60
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.14

finishing

Salmrohr+0.00on par
Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salmrohr ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Salmrohr or draw
55%
Salmrohr or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
78%
Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
67%

Winning margin

Salmrohr wins by 2+
16%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Salmrohr 1+ goals
80%
Salmrohr 2+ goals
47%
Salmrohr 3+ goals
22%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
85%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
57%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Salmrohr (draw refunded)
42%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salmrohr at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salmrohr attack 1.07 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.60

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + Salmrohr defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salmrohr scores more
33%
level
22%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
45%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Salmrohr 1–4 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Alemannia Waldalgesheim beat Salmrohr 4-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Salmtalstadion in Salmtal.