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Salisbury vs Weston-super-Mare — League #60 2026

Salisbury
Salisbury
FT
2 – 1
Weston-super-Mare
Weston-super-Mare
M. Brooks 59'
C. Davies 45+2' (pen)
D. Grubb 8'
10/27/2020League #60League #60 · Southern South - 8The Raymond McEnhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Salisbury42%
×Draw29%
Weston-super-Mare29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salisbury
1.20
Weston-super-Mare
0.94

Salisbury creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Salisbury
1.00
Weston-super-Mare
1.20

allows per match

Salisbury
0.67
Weston-super-Mare
1.40

finishing

Salisbury+0.00on par
Weston-super-Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salisbury ↓

Weston-super-Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Salisbury or draw
71%
Salisbury or Weston-super-Mare
71%
Draw or Weston-super-Mare
58%

Winning margin

Salisbury wins by 2+
18%
Weston-super-Mare wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Salisbury 1+ goals
70%
Salisbury 2+ goals
34%
Salisbury 3+ goals
12%
Weston-super-Mare 1+ goals
61%
Weston-super-Mare 2+ goals
24%
Weston-super-Mare 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Salisbury (draw refunded)
59%
Weston-super-Mare (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salisbury at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Weston-super-Mare away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salisbury attack 1.00 + Weston-super-Mare defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Weston-super-Mare attack 1.20 + Salisbury defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salisbury scores more
42%
level
29%
Weston-super-Mare scores more
29%

Salisbury at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Salisbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
D. Grubb
45+2'
C. DaviesPenalty
59'
M. Brooks

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #60: Salisbury 2–1 Weston-super-Mare

Salisbury beat Weston-super-Mare 2-1 in League #60 on October 27, 2020.

Goals: D. Grubb (8'), C. Davies (45+2' pen), M. Brooks (59').

The match was played at The Raymond McEnhill Stadium in Salisbury, Wiltshire.