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Salisbury vs Maidstone Utd — League #51 2026

Salisbury
Salisbury
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd
2/28/2026League #51League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Salisbury15%
×Draw28%
Maidstone Utd57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salisbury
0.54
Maidstone Utd
1.37

Maidstone Utd creates 154% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Salisbury
1.07
Maidstone Utd
1.67

allows per match

Salisbury
1.07
Maidstone Utd
0.00

finishing

Salisbury+0.00on par
Maidstone Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salisbury ↓

Maidstone Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–120%
0–214%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Salisbury or draw
43%
Salisbury or Maidstone Utd
72%
Draw or Maidstone Utd
85%

Winning margin

Salisbury wins by 2+
3%
Maidstone Utd wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Salisbury 1+ goals
42%
Salisbury 2+ goals
10%
Salisbury 3+ goals
2%
Maidstone Utd 1+ goals
75%
Maidstone Utd 2+ goals
40%
Maidstone Utd 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Salisbury (draw refunded)
20%
Maidstone Utd (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salisbury at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Maidstone Utd away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Maidstone Utd defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.54

Maidstone Utd attack 1.67 + Salisbury defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Salisbury scores more
15%
level
28%
Maidstone Utd scores more
57%

Maidstone Utd at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Maidstone Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salisbury vs Maidstone Utd

Maidstone Utd beat Salisbury 1-0 in League #51 on February 28, 2026.