Salisbury 2–0 Enfield Town: Result & Stats

Salisbury

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Enfield Town

3/21/2026

League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Salisbury38%

×Draw24%

Enfield Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalisburyExpected goals in this matchEnfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

Salisbury

1.54

Enfield Town

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

1.07

creates per match

2.00

1.07

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Salisbury

1.07

Enfield Town

2.00

allows per match

Salisbury

1.07

Enfield Town

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salisbury+0.00on par

Enfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salisbury ↓

Enfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Salisbury or draw

62%

Salisbury or Enfield Town

76%

Draw or Enfield Town

62%

Winning margin

Salisbury wins by 2+

18%

Enfield Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Salisbury 1+ goals

79%

Salisbury 2+ goals

45%

Salisbury 3+ goals

20%

Enfield Town 1+ goals

79%

Enfield Town 2+ goals

45%

Enfield Town 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Salisbury (draw refunded)

50%

Enfield Town (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salisbury at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Enfield Town away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Enfield Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Enfield Town attack 2.00 + Salisbury defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Salisbury scores more

38%

level

24%

Enfield Town scores more

38%

Salisbury at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Salisbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff