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Salisbury vs Ebbsfleet United — League #51 2026

Salisbury
Salisbury
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United
N. Coppin 90+6'
D. Samuel 55'
2/7/2026League #51League #51 · South - 31The Raymond McEnhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Salisbury53%
×Draw26%
Ebbsfleet United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salisbury
1.54
Ebbsfleet United
0.87

Salisbury creates 77% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Salisbury
1.07
Ebbsfleet United
0.67

allows per match

Salisbury
1.07
Ebbsfleet United
2.00

finishing

Salisbury+0.00on par
Ebbsfleet United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salisbury ↓

Ebbsfleet United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salisbury or draw
79%
Salisbury or Ebbsfleet United
74%
Draw or Ebbsfleet United
47%

Winning margin

Salisbury wins by 2+
28%
Ebbsfleet United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Salisbury 1+ goals
79%
Salisbury 2+ goals
45%
Salisbury 3+ goals
20%
Ebbsfleet United 1+ goals
58%
Ebbsfleet United 2+ goals
22%
Ebbsfleet United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Salisbury (draw refunded)
71%
Ebbsfleet United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salisbury at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Ebbsfleet United away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Ebbsfleet United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ebbsfleet United attack 0.67 + Salisbury defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Salisbury scores more
53%
level
26%
Ebbsfleet United scores more
21%

Salisbury at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Salisbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
D. Samuel
90+6'
N. Coppin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #51: Salisbury 1–1 Ebbsfleet United

Salisbury and Ebbsfleet United drew 1-1 in League #51 on February 7, 2026.

Goals: D. Samuel (55'), N. Coppin (90+6').

The match was played at The Raymond McEnhill Stadium in Salisbury, Wiltshire.