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Salisbury vs Chippenham Town — League #51 2026

Salisbury
Salisbury
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chippenham Town
Chippenham Town
2/17/2026League #51League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Salisbury49%
×Draw26%
Chippenham Town26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salisbury
1.54
Chippenham Town
1.04

Salisbury creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Salisbury
1.07
Chippenham Town
1.00

allows per match

Salisbury
1.07
Chippenham Town
2.00

finishing

Salisbury+0.00on par
Chippenham Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salisbury ↓

Chippenham Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Salisbury or draw
74%
Salisbury or Chippenham Town
74%
Draw or Chippenham Town
51%

Winning margin

Salisbury wins by 2+
25%
Chippenham Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Salisbury 1+ goals
79%
Salisbury 2+ goals
45%
Salisbury 3+ goals
20%
Chippenham Town 1+ goals
65%
Chippenham Town 2+ goals
28%
Chippenham Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salisbury (draw refunded)
66%
Chippenham Town (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salisbury at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Chippenham Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Chippenham Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chippenham Town attack 1.00 + Salisbury defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salisbury scores more
49%
level
26%
Chippenham Town scores more
26%

Salisbury at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Salisbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #51: Salisbury 1–0 Chippenham Town

Salisbury beat Chippenham Town 1-0 in League #51 on February 17, 2026.