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Salgueiro vs Juazeirense — Serie C 2018

Salgueiro
Salgueiro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juazeirense
Juazeirense
5/26/2018Serie CSerie C · Round 7Estádio Cornélio de Barros Muniz (Salgueiro, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Salgueiro54%
×Draw29%
Juazeirense17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgueiro
1.33
Juazeirense
0.61

Salgueiro creates 118% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Salgueiro
0.89
Juazeirense
0.44

allows per match

Salgueiro
0.78
Juazeirense
1.78

finishing

Salgueiro+0.00on par
Juazeirense+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgueiro ↓

Juazeirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Salgueiro or draw
83%
Salgueiro or Juazeirense
71%
Draw or Juazeirense
46%

Winning margin

Salgueiro wins by 2+
26%
Juazeirense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Salgueiro 1+ goals
74%
Salgueiro 2+ goals
38%
Salgueiro 3+ goals
15%
Juazeirense 1+ goals
46%
Juazeirense 2+ goals
13%
Juazeirense 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Salgueiro (draw refunded)
76%
Juazeirense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgueiro at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Juazeirense away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgueiro attack 0.89 + Juazeirense defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.33

Juazeirense attack 0.44 + Salgueiro defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Salgueiro scores more
54%
level
29%
Juazeirense scores more
17%

Salgueiro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Salgueiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salgueiro vs Juazeirense

Salgueiro beat Juazeirense 1-0 in Serie C on May 26, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Cornélio de Barros Muniz (Salgueiro, Pernambuco).