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Salgueiro vs ABC — Serie C 2018

Salgueiro
Salgueiro
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
ABC
ABC
5/19/2018Serie CSerie C · Round 6Estádio Cornélio de Barros Muniz (Salgueiro, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Salgueiro40%
×Draw33%
ABC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgueiro
1.02
ABC
0.78

Salgueiro creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 53 away

creates per match

Salgueiro
0.89
ABC
0.77

allows per match

Salgueiro
0.78
ABC
1.15

finishing

Salgueiro+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgueiro ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Salgueiro or draw
73%
Salgueiro or ABC
67%
Draw or ABC
60%

Winning margin

Salgueiro wins by 2+
16%
ABC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Salgueiro 1+ goals
64%
Salgueiro 2+ goals
27%
Salgueiro 3+ goals
8%
ABC 1+ goals
54%
ABC 2+ goals
18%
ABC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Salgueiro (draw refunded)
60%
ABC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgueiro at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgueiro attack 0.89 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

ABC attack 0.77 + Salgueiro defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salgueiro scores more
40%
level
33%
ABC scores more
27%

Salgueiro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salgueiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: Salgueiro 3–0 ABC

Salgueiro beat ABC 3-0 in Serie C on May 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Cornélio de Barros Muniz (Salgueiro, Pernambuco).