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Salgótarjáni BTC vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
FT
1 – 0
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
3/6/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 24Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Salgótarjáni BTC36%
×Draw25%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.41
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 38 away

creates per match

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.29
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.47
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarjáni BTC ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Salgótarjáni BTC or draw
60%
Salgótarjáni BTC or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
75%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
64%

Winning margin

Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
16%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
76%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
41%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
17%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
78%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
44%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
47%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarjáni BTC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 1.29 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
36%
level
25%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
40%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Salgótarjáni BTC 1–0 Hajdúszoboszlói SE

Salgótarjáni BTC beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.