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Salgótarjáni BTC vs Gyöngyös — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
4/28/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 26Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Salgótarjáni BTC50%
×Draw23%
Gyöngyös27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.84
Gyöngyös
1.30

Salgótarjáni BTC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 43 away

creates per match

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.29
Gyöngyös
1.14

allows per match

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.47
Gyöngyös
2.40

finishing

Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par
Gyöngyös+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarjáni BTC ↓

Gyöngyös →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Salgótarjáni BTC or draw
73%
Salgótarjáni BTC or Gyöngyös
77%
Draw or Gyöngyös
50%

Winning margin

Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
28%
Gyöngyös wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
84%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
55%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
28%
Gyöngyös 1+ goals
73%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
37%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
65%
Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarjáni BTC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

Gyöngyös away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 1.29 + Gyöngyös defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.84

Gyöngyös attack 1.14 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
50%
level
23%
Gyöngyös scores more
27%

Salgótarjáni BTC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Salgótarjáni BTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Salgótarjáni BTC 1–1 Gyöngyös

Salgótarjáni BTC and Gyöngyös drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.