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Salgótarjáni BTC vs Cigand SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cigand SE
Cigand SE
9/3/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 6Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Salgótarjáni BTC33%
×Draw25%
Cigand SE42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.33
Cigand SE
1.52

Cigand SE creates 14% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

creates per match

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.29
Cigand SE
1.58

allows per match

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.47
Cigand SE
1.38

finishing

Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par
Cigand SE+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarjáni BTC ↓

Cigand SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Salgótarjáni BTC or draw
58%
Salgótarjáni BTC or Cigand SE
75%
Draw or Cigand SE
67%

Winning margin

Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
15%
Cigand SE wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
74%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
38%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
15%
Cigand SE 1+ goals
78%
Cigand SE 2+ goals
45%
Cigand SE 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
44%
Cigand SE (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarjáni BTC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

Cigand SE away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 1.29 + Cigand SE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cigand SE attack 1.58 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
33%
level
25%
Cigand SE scores more
42%

Cigand SE at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cigand SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Salgótarjáni BTC 1–1 Cigand SE

Salgótarjáni BTC and Cigand SE drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.