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Salgótarján vs Tiszaújváros — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarján
Salgótarján
FT
1 – 2
Tiszaújváros
Tiszaújváros
9/27/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 11Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Salgótarján45%
×Draw24%
Tiszaújváros32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarján
1.71
Tiszaújváros
1.40

Salgótarján creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

creates per match

Salgótarján
1.68
Tiszaújváros
1.48

allows per match

Salgótarján
1.32
Tiszaújváros
1.74

finishing

Salgótarján+0.00on par
Tiszaújváros+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarján ↓

Tiszaújváros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Salgótarján or draw
68%
Salgótarján or Tiszaújváros
76%
Draw or Tiszaújváros
55%

Winning margin

Salgótarján wins by 2+
24%
Tiszaújváros wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Salgótarján 1+ goals
82%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
51%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
24%
Tiszaújváros 1+ goals
75%
Tiszaújváros 2+ goals
41%
Tiszaújváros 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Salgótarján (draw refunded)
59%
Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarján at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Tiszaújváros away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.74 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarján attack 1.68 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tiszaújváros attack 1.48 + Salgótarján defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salgótarján scores more
45%
level
24%
Tiszaújváros scores more
32%

Salgótarján at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salgótarján will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Salgótarján 1–2 Tiszaújváros

Tiszaújváros beat Salgótarján 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.