Salgótarján 1–3 Tiszakecske FC: Result & Stats

Salgótarján

FT

1 – 3

Tiszakecske FC

10/25/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 15Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Salgótarján27%

×Draw23%

Tiszakecske FC49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalgótarjánExpected goals in this matchTiszakecske FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.79

Salgótarján

1.28

Tiszakecske FC

1.79

Tiszakecske FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.68

creates per match

2.26

1.32

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Salgótarján

1.68

Tiszakecske FC

2.26

allows per match

Salgótarján

1.32

Tiszakecske FC

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salgótarján+0.00on par

Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarján ↓

Tiszakecske FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Salgótarján or draw

51%

Salgótarján or Tiszakecske FC

77%

Draw or Tiszakecske FC

73%

Winning margin

Salgótarján wins by 2+

12%

Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Salgótarján 1+ goals

72%

Salgótarján 2+ goals

37%

Salgótarján 3+ goals

14%

Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals

83%

Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals

53%

Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Salgótarján (draw refunded)

36%

Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarján at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Tiszakecske FC away — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarján attack 1.68 + Tiszakecske FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tiszakecske FC attack 2.26 + Salgótarján defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salgótarján scores more

27%

level

23%

Tiszakecske FC scores more

49%

Tiszakecske FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff