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Salgótarján vs Tiszafuredi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarján
Salgótarján
FT
2 – 1
Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
11/8/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 17Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Salgótarján44%
×Draw24%
Tiszafuredi VSE32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarján
1.66
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.39

Salgótarján creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 102 away

creates per match

Salgótarján
1.68
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.45

allows per match

Salgótarján
1.32
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64

finishing

Salgótarján+0.00on par
Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarján ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Salgótarján or draw
68%
Salgótarján or Tiszafuredi VSE
76%
Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE
56%

Winning margin

Salgótarján wins by 2+
23%
Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Salgótarján 1+ goals
81%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
49%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
23%
Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
75%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
40%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Salgótarján (draw refunded)
58%
Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarján at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarján attack 1.68 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.66

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Salgótarján defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salgótarján scores more
44%
level
24%
Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
32%

Salgótarján at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salgótarján will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Salgótarján 2–1 Tiszafuredi VSE

Salgótarján beat Tiszafuredi VSE 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.