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Salgótarján vs Tállya — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarján
Salgótarján
FT
2 – 3
Tállya
Tállya
3/7/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 23Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Salgótarján55%
×Draw22%
Tállya23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarján
2.00
Tállya
1.21

Salgótarján creates 65% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 47 away

creates per match

Salgótarján
1.68
Tállya
1.09

allows per match

Salgótarján
1.32
Tállya
2.32

finishing

Salgótarján+0.00on par
Tállya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarján ↓

Tállya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Salgótarján or draw
77%
Salgótarján or Tállya
78%
Draw or Tállya
45%

Winning margin

Salgótarján wins by 2+
33%
Tállya wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Salgótarján 1+ goals
86%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
59%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
32%
Tállya 1+ goals
70%
Tállya 2+ goals
34%
Tállya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Salgótarján (draw refunded)
71%
Tállya (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarján at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Tállya away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.32 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarján attack 1.68 + Tállya defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.00

Tállya attack 1.09 + Salgótarján defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Salgótarján scores more
55%
level
22%
Tállya scores more
23%

Salgótarján at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Salgótarján will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Salgótarján 2–3 Tállya

Tállya beat Salgótarján 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.