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Salgótarján vs Mezőkövesd II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarján
Salgótarján
FT
3 – 2
Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
5/30/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 38Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Salgótarján66%
×Draw18%
Mezőkövesd II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarján
2.42
Mezőkövesd II
1.10

Salgótarján creates 120% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Salgótarján
1.68
Mezőkövesd II
0.89

allows per match

Salgótarján
1.32
Mezőkövesd II
3.16

finishing

Salgótarján+0.00on par
Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarján ↓

Mezőkövesd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Salgótarján or draw
84%
Salgótarján or Mezőkövesd II
82%
Draw or Mezőkövesd II
34%

Winning margin

Salgótarján wins by 2+
44%
Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Salgótarján 1+ goals
91%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
69%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
43%
Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
67%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
30%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Salgótarján (draw refunded)
81%
Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarján at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarján attack 1.68 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.42

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Salgótarján defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Salgótarján scores more
66%
level
18%
Mezőkövesd II scores more
16%

Salgótarján at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Salgótarján will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salgótarján vs Mezőkövesd II

Salgótarján beat Mezőkövesd II 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.