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Salgótarján vs Jászberényi Vasas — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarján
Salgótarján
FT
2 – 0
Jászberényi Vasas
Jászberényi Vasas
4/4/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 27Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Salgótarján53%
×Draw22%
Jászberényi Vasas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarján
1.94
Jászberényi Vasas
1.26

Salgótarján creates 54% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

creates per match

Salgótarján
1.68
Jászberényi Vasas
1.20

allows per match

Salgótarján
1.32
Jászberényi Vasas
2.21

finishing

Salgótarján+0.00on par
Jászberényi Vasas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarján ↓

Jászberényi Vasas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Salgótarján or draw
75%
Salgótarján or Jászberényi Vasas
78%
Draw or Jászberényi Vasas
47%

Winning margin

Salgótarján wins by 2+
31%
Jászberényi Vasas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Salgótarján 1+ goals
86%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
58%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
30%
Jászberényi Vasas 1+ goals
72%
Jászberényi Vasas 2+ goals
36%
Jászberényi Vasas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Salgótarján (draw refunded)
68%
Jászberényi Vasas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarján at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Jászberényi Vasas away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarján attack 1.68 + Jászberényi Vasas defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Jászberényi Vasas attack 1.20 + Salgótarján defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Salgótarján scores more
53%
level
22%
Jászberényi Vasas scores more
25%

Salgótarján at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Salgótarján will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salgótarján vs Jászberényi Vasas

Salgótarján beat Jászberényi Vasas 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.