Salgótarján 4–1 Diósgyőr II: Result & Stats

Salgótarján

FT

4 – 1

Diósgyőr II

9/9/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 9Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Salgótarján46%

×Draw24%

Diósgyőr II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalgótarjánExpected goals in this matchDiósgyőr II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.31

Salgótarján

1.69

Diósgyőr II

1.31

Salgótarján creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

1.68

creates per match

1.30

1.32

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Salgótarján

1.68

Diósgyőr II

1.30

allows per match

Salgótarján

1.32

Diósgyőr II

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salgótarján+0.00on par

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarján ↓

Diósgyőr II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Salgótarján or draw

70%

Salgótarján or Diósgyőr II

76%

Draw or Diósgyőr II

54%

Winning margin

Salgótarján wins by 2+

24%

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Salgótarján 1+ goals

82%

Salgótarján 2+ goals

50%

Salgótarján 3+ goals

24%

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals

73%

Diósgyőr II 2+ goals

38%

Diósgyőr II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Salgótarján (draw refunded)

61%

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarján at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarján attack 1.68 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + Salgótarján defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Salgótarján scores more

46%

level

24%

Diósgyőr II scores more

30%

Salgótarján at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Salgótarján will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff