Salford City 0–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tranmere

J. Hawkes 34'

9/17/2022

League Two · Round 10The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City54%

×Draw24%

Tranmere21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.96

Salford City

1.69

Tranmere

0.96

Salford City creates 76% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.95

creates per match

1.15

0.77

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Salford City

1.95

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Salford City

0.77

Tranmere

1.42

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

79%

Salford City or Tranmere

76%

Draw or Tranmere

46%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

30%

Tranmere wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

82%

Salford City 2+ goals

50%

Salford City 3+ goals

24%

Tranmere 1+ goals

62%

Tranmere 2+ goals

25%

Tranmere 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

72%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.69

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Salford City scores more

54%

level

24%

Tranmere scores more

21%

Salford City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Dacres-Cogley

Tranmere · D

7.9

Match Events

34'

45+1'

45+1'

55'

60'

M. Lund← E. Galbraith

60'

M. Smith← Elliot Simões

60'

73'

78'

87'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordTranmere

Overview

75%Possession25%

11Total Shots13

4Corners5

9Fouls23

Shots

11Total Shots13

0On Target4

7Off Target8

4Blocked1

6Inside Box8

5Outside Box5

Passing

75%Possession25%

688Total Passes215

581Accurate Passes130

84%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls23

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Salford City vs Tranmere

Tranmere beat Salford City 1-0 in League Two on September 17, 2022.

Goals: J. Hawkes (34').

Salford City controlled possession (75%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.

Salford City vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Salford City vs Tranmere