Salford City 2–2 Stockport County: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Stockport County

3/14/2024

League Two · Round 38The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Salford City33%

×Draw26%

Stockport County41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.44

Salford City

1.26

Stockport County

1.44

Stockport County creates 14% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 47 away

1.40

creates per match

1.72

1.15

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Stockport County

1.72

allows per match

Salford City

1.15

Stockport County

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

59%

Salford City or Stockport County

74%

Draw or Stockport County

67%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

14%

Stockport County wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

72%

Salford City 2+ goals

36%

Salford City 3+ goals

13%

Stockport County 1+ goals

76%

Stockport County 2+ goals

42%

Stockport County 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

44%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Stockport County defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Stockport County attack 1.72 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Salford City scores more

33%

level

26%

Stockport County scores more

41%

Stockport County at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff