Salford City 2–3 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Plymouth

J. Wilson 69', 62'

R. Hardie 90+2'

A. Sarcevic 67'

B. Moore 19'

2/11/2020

League Two · Round 33The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Salford City36%

×Draw27%

Plymouth37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.23

Salford City

1.22

Plymouth

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 24 away

1.40

creates per match

1.33

1.14

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Plymouth

1.33

allows per match

Salford City

1.14

Plymouth

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

63%

Salford City or Plymouth

73%

Draw or Plymouth

64%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

15%

Plymouth wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

70%

Salford City 2+ goals

34%

Salford City 3+ goals

12%

Plymouth 1+ goals

71%

Plymouth 2+ goals

35%

Plymouth 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

50%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Salford City scores more

36%

level

27%

Plymouth scores more

37%

Plymouth at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Hardie

Plymouth · F

8.0

Match Events

19'

B. Moore↳ A. Sarcevic

52'

Jack Baldwin

54'

Antoni Sarcevic

54'

Danny Mayor

61'

B. Thomas-Asante← A. Rooney

61'

J. Wilson← T. Elliott

62'

J. Wilson↳ B. Thomas-Asante

67'

A. Sarcevic

68'

Joel Grant← L. Jephcott

69'

J. Wilson↳ Bruno Andrade

78'

C. Conway← Bruno Andrade

78'

R. Hardie← G. Cooper

88'

Joshua Grant← D. Mayor

90'

Scott Wootton

90+2'

R. Hardie↳ S. Wootton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordPlymouth

Overview

48%Possession52%

21Total Shots14

5Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots14

6On Target5

13Off Target2

2Blocked7

16Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

391Total Passes428

253Accurate Passes276

65%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1