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Salford City vs Lincoln — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Salford City
Salford City
FT
1 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
8/18/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Salford City24%
×Draw27%
Lincoln49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
0.92
Lincoln
1.42

Lincoln creates 54% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.00
Lincoln
0.50

allows per match

Salford City
2.33
Lincoln
0.83

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
51%
Salford City or Lincoln
73%
Draw or Lincoln
76%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
8%
Lincoln wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
60%
Salford City 2+ goals
23%
Salford City 3+ goals
7%
Lincoln 1+ goals
76%
Lincoln 2+ goals
41%
Lincoln 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
33%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Lincoln away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.00 + Lincoln defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Lincoln attack 0.50 + Salford City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salford City scores more
24%
level
27%
Lincoln scores more
49%

Lincoln at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Salford City 1–0 Lincoln

Salford City beat Lincoln 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 18, 2020.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.