Salford City 2–0 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hartlepool

M. Willock 85'

T. Elliott 3'

10/16/2021

League Two · Round 12The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Salford City49%

×Draw25%

Hartlepool26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.09

Salford City

1.59

Hartlepool

1.09

Salford City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 81 away

1.40

creates per match

1.05

1.14

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Hartlepool

1.05

allows per match

Salford City

1.14

Hartlepool

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

74%

Salford City or Hartlepool

75%

Draw or Hartlepool

51%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

25%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

80%

Salford City 2+ goals

47%

Salford City 3+ goals

21%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

66%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

30%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

65%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salford City scores more

49%

level

25%

Hartlepool scores more

26%

Salford City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Elliott

Salford City · F

8.2

Match Events

3'

T. Elliott↳ B. Thomas-Asante

35'

M. Shelton← Z. Francis-Angol

44'

Tom Elliott

46'

M. Fondop-Talum← W. Goodwin

47'

Nicky Featherstone

59'

G. Holohan← J. Grey

65'

M. Willock← L. Shephard

72'

Jordan Turnbull

73'

T. Wright← C. McAleny

81'

Jamie Sterry

85'

M. Willock↳ T. Elliott

89'

K. N’Mai← T. Elliott

90+5'

Brandon Thomas-Asante

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordHartlepool

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots5

5Corners1

8Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots5

5On Target1

6Off Target4

2Blocked0

6Inside Box2

7Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

388Total Passes387

270Accurate Passes275

70%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2