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Salford City vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Forest Green
Forest Green
1/6/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 27The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Salford City37%
×Draw26%
Forest Green36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.31
Forest Green
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 158 home / 113 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
Forest Green
1.42

allows per match

Salford City
1.15
Forest Green
1.22

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
64%
Salford City or Forest Green
74%
Draw or Forest Green
63%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
17%
Forest Green wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
73%
Salford City 2+ goals
38%
Salford City 3+ goals
14%
Forest Green 1+ goals
72%
Forest Green 2+ goals
37%
Forest Green 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
51%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.22 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Forest Green attack 1.42 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Salford City scores more
37%
level
26%
Forest Green scores more
36%

Salford City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Salford City 2–2 Forest Green

Salford City and Forest Green drew 2-2 in League Two on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.