Salford City vs Fleetwood Town

Salford City

Preview

14:00

Fleetwood Town

10/3/2026

League Two · Round 9Peninsula Stadium

56%

Salford City

model favours

56%24%21%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City56%

×Draw24%

Fleetwood Town21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.96

Salford City

1.75

Fleetwood Town

0.96

Salford City creates 82% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.95

creates per match

1.15

0.77

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Salford City

1.95

Fleetwood Town

1.15

allows per match

Salford City

0.77

Fleetwood Town

1.54

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less

Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

79%

Salford City or Fleetwood Town

76%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

44%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

31%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

83%

Salford City 2+ goals

52%

Salford City 3+ goals

25%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

62%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

25%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

73%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Salford City scores more

56%

level

24%

Fleetwood Town scores more

21%

Salford City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Fleetwood Town win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)
Salford City sit 4, Fleetwood Town 15 in the table
Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Salford City

Attack-heavy

Fleetwood Town

Balanced

52%Possession48%

67%Pass accuracy68%

12.9Shots12.1

1.73xGBiggest gap1.32

Salford CityFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0

Salford City

3

Draws

1

Fleetwood Town

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 50%

0–01–10–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

City

WLLWD

Town

WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff