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Fleetwood Town vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Salford City
Salford City
M. Helm 61'
R. Coughlan 33'
F. Okoronkwo 90+8'
B. Woodburn 18'
10/29/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Fleetwood Town44%
×Draw25%
Salford City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.55
Salford City
1.25

Fleetwood Town creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.52
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
0.96
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.35scores less
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
69%
Fleetwood Town or Salford City
75%
Draw or Salford City
56%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
22%
Salford City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
79%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
46%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
20%
Salford City 1+ goals
71%
Salford City 2+ goals
36%
Salford City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
59%
Salford City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.52 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.55

Salford City attack 1.55 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
44%
level
25%
Salford City scores more
31%

Fleetwood Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
R. CoughlanFleetwood TownFleetwood Town · F
7.5

Match Events

5'
Stephan Negru
18'
B. Woodburn
26'
Kylian Kouassi
28'
Jon Taylor
30'
Finley Potter
33'
R. Coughlan
45+3'
M. Helm← B. Wiredu
46'
J. Austerfield← C. Stockton
46'
L. Garbutt← T. Edwards
55'
Kelly N'Mai
59'
Elliot Bonds
61'
M. Helm
68'
Ben Woodburn
79'
R. Broom← R. Coughlan
80'
L. Shaw← D. Mayor
84'
M. Lund← O. Ashley
84'
F. Okoronkwo← J. Taylor
90'
Matthew Virtue-Thick
90+4'
Curtis Tilt
90+5'
T. Lonergan← R. Graydon
90+2'
P. Patterson← C. Johnston
90+8'
F. Okoronkwo↳ K. N’Mai

Possession

43%Fleetwood

Shots

17Fleetwood

Pass accuracy

47%Fleetwood

Statistics

FleetwoodSalford
Overview
43%Possession57%
17Total Shots11
2Corners2
8Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots11
4On Target3
4Off Target3
9Blocked5
14Inside Box4
3Outside Box7
Passing
43%Possession57%
331Total Passes422
225Accurate Passes325
68%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls15
3Yellow Cards6
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Fleetwood Town vs Salford City

Fleetwood Town and Salford City drew 2-2 in League Two on October 29, 2024.

Goals: B. Woodburn (18'), R. Coughlan (33'), M. Helm (61'), F. Okoronkwo (90+8').

Salford City controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood, Lancashire.