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Salford City vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
Preview
14:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
10/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Peninsula Stadium
Big match
55%
Salford City
model favours
55%23%22%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City55%
×Draw23%
Crawley Town22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.87
Crawley Town
1.09

Salford City creates 72% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Crawley Town
1.42

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Crawley Town
1.79

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Crawley Town-0.57scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
78%
Salford City or Crawley Town
77%
Draw or Crawley Town
45%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
32%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
85%
Salford City 2+ goals
56%
Salford City 3+ goals
29%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
66%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
30%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
72%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Crawley Town defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.87

Crawley Town attack 1.42 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Salford City scores more
55%
level
23%
Crawley Town scores more
22%

Salford City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Salford City sit 4, Crawley Town 22 in the table
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Salford City
Attack-heavy
Crawley Town
Balanced
52%Possession55%
67%Pass accuracy72%
13.2Shots12.6
1.73xGBiggest gap1.36
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Salford CityCrawley Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Salford City
4
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 70%
0–04–31–01–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLLWD
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Salford City host Crawley Town

October 17, 2026: Salford City take on Crawley Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Salford City host Crawley Town at Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.