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Crawley Town vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
K. N’Mai 80'
1/13/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 28Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Crawley Town37%
×Draw27%
Salford City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.28
Salford City
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 157 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.36
Salford City
1.31

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.21
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
64%
Crawley Town or Salford City
73%
Draw or Salford City
63%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
16%
Salford City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
72%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
37%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
14%
Salford City 1+ goals
72%
Salford City 2+ goals
36%
Salford City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
51%
Salford City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 137 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.36 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Salford City attack 1.31 + Crawley Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Crawley Town scores more
37%
level
27%
Salford City scores more
36%

Crawley Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. AddaiCrawley TownCrawley Town · G
8.9

Match Events

13'
Luke Garbutt
34'
Jay Williams
37'
Theo Vassell
68'
Luke Bolton
70'
K. Lolos← A. Campbell
70'
H. Forster← R. Darcy
73'
C. Hendry← C. McAleny
73'
K. N’Mai← J. Luamba
80'
K. N’Mai↳ C. Hendry
90+1'
M. Lund← L. Garbutt
90+1'
O. Ashley← R. Watson

Possession

55%Crawley

Shots

10Crawley

Pass accuracy

51%Crawley

Statistics

CrawleySalford
Overview
55%Possession45%
10Total Shots35
2Corners10
8Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots35
1On Target12
5Off Target17
4Blocked6
6Inside Box18
4Outside Box17
Passing
55%Possession45%
380Total Passes305
240Accurate Passes184
63%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
11Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls15
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Crawley Town vs Salford City

Salford City beat Crawley Town 1-0 in League Two on January 13, 2024.

Goals: K. N’Mai (80').

Crawley Town controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 35.

The match was played at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.