Salford City 0–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

2/8/2020

League Two · Round 32The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City55%

×Draw23%

Crawley Town22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.09

Salford City

1.87

Crawley Town

1.09

Salford City creates 72% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.95

creates per match

1.42

0.77

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Salford City

1.95

Crawley Town

1.42

allows per match

Salford City

0.77

Crawley Town

1.79

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less

Crawley Town-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

78%

Salford City or Crawley Town

77%

Draw or Crawley Town

45%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

32%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

85%

Salford City 2+ goals

56%

Salford City 3+ goals

29%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

66%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

30%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

72%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Crawley Town defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.87

Crawley Town attack 1.42 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Salford City scores more

55%

level

23%

Crawley Town scores more

22%

Salford City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Morris

Crawley Town · G

8.8

Match Events

54'

61'

61'

61'

66'

67'

B. Thomas-Asante← A. Rooney

73'

T. Allarakhia← G. Francomb

77'

J. Powell← M. Adebowale

79'

R. Towell← M. OConnor

84'

R. German← R. Grego-Cox

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordCrawley

Overview

59%Possession41%

20Total Shots3

8Corners3

15Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots3

8On Target2

9Off Target1

3Blocked0

12Inside Box2

8Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

392Total Passes278

245Accurate Passes115

63%Pass Accuracy41%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2