Salford City vs Colchester: Preview & Prediction

Salford City

Preview

15:00

Colchester

12/12/2026

League Two · Round 19Peninsula Stadium

Big match

58%

Salford City

model favours

58%22%20%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City58%

×Draw22%

Colchester20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.99

Salford City

1.88

Colchester

0.99

Salford City creates 90% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.95

creates per match

1.21

0.77

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Salford City

1.95

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Salford City

0.77

Colchester

1.81

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

80%

Salford City or Colchester

78%

Draw or Colchester

42%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

34%

Colchester wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

85%

Salford City 2+ goals

56%

Salford City 3+ goals

29%

Colchester 1+ goals

63%

Colchester 2+ goals

26%

Colchester 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

75%

Colchester (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.88

Colchester attack 1.21 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Salford City scores more

58%

level

22%

Colchester scores more

20%

Salford City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Salford City

Attack-heavy

Colchester

Balanced

52%Possession51%

67%Pass accuracy71%

12.9Shots11.4

1.73xGBiggest gap1.31

Salford CityColchester

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Salford City

2

Draws

3

Colchester

Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 60%

1–04–34–12–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

City

WLLWD

Colchester

LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salford City face Colchester (League Two)

League Two returns with Salford City hosting Colchester. Match starts December 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Salford City host Colchester at Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Salford City vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Salford City face Colchester (League Two)