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Salford City vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Colchester
Colchester
2/27/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 29The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Salford City44%
×Draw27%
Colchester29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.37
Colchester
1.07

Salford City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 180 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
Colchester
1.00

allows per match

Salford City
1.15
Colchester
1.34

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
71%
Salford City or Colchester
73%
Draw or Colchester
56%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
21%
Colchester wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
75%
Salford City 2+ goals
40%
Salford City 3+ goals
16%
Colchester 1+ goals
66%
Colchester 2+ goals
29%
Colchester 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
60%
Colchester (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 180 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Colchester defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Colchester attack 1.00 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salford City scores more
44%
level
27%
Colchester scores more
29%

Salford City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Salford City 1–1 Colchester

Salford City and Colchester drew 1-1 in League Two on February 27, 2024.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.