Salford City 0–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

N. Chilvers 22'

4/15/2023

League Two · Round 42The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City58%

×Draw22%

Colchester20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.99

Salford City

1.88

Colchester

0.99

Salford City creates 90% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.95

creates per match

1.21

0.77

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Salford City

1.95

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Salford City

0.77

Colchester

1.81

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

80%

Salford City or Colchester

78%

Draw or Colchester

42%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

34%

Colchester wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

85%

Salford City 2+ goals

56%

Salford City 3+ goals

29%

Colchester 1+ goals

63%

Colchester 2+ goals

26%

Colchester 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

75%

Colchester (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.88

Colchester attack 1.21 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Salford City scores more

58%

level

22%

Colchester scores more

20%

Salford City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. Watt

Salford City · M

8.5

Match Events

22'

N. Chilvers↳ S. Tovide

45'

56'

61'

62'

62'

63'

68'

L. Barry← L. Shephard

75'

M. Miranda← A. Read

82'

C. Morton← T. Vassell

85'

Connor Hall

86'

W. Greenidge← C. Wood

86'

F. Sears← S. Tovide

90+4'

Callum Hendry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordColchester

Overview

72%Possession28%

26Total Shots5

9Corners4

6Fouls12

Shots

26Total Shots5

3On Target2

13Off Target2

10Blocked1

17Inside Box4

9Outside Box1

Passing

72%Possession28%

546Total Passes222

413Accurate Passes113

76%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0