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Salford City vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
Preview
15:00
Barnet
Barnet
3/6/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 34Peninsula Stadium
51%
Salford City
model favours
51%24%25%
1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City51%
×Draw24%
Barnet25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.66
Barnet
1.08

Salford City creates 54% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Barnet
1.40

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Barnet
1.36

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Barnet+0.03on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
75%
Salford City or Barnet
76%
Draw or Barnet
49%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
27%
Barnet wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
81%
Salford City 2+ goals
49%
Salford City 3+ goals
23%
Barnet 1+ goals
66%
Barnet 2+ goals
29%
Barnet 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
67%
Barnet (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Barnet defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.66

Barnet attack 1.40 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Salford City scores more
51%
level
24%
Barnet scores more
25%

Salford City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
City
WLLWD
Barnet
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Salford City host Barnet

March 6, 2027: Salford City take on Barnet in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Salford City host Barnet at Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.