Salford City 2–0 Barnet: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Barnet

M. Butcher 45'

R. Longelo-Mbule 39'

3/7/2026

League Two · Round 36Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City51%

×Draw24%

Barnet25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.08

Salford City

1.66

Barnet

1.08

Salford City creates 54% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.95

creates per match

1.40

0.77

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Salford City

1.95

Barnet

1.40

allows per match

Salford City

0.77

Barnet

1.36

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less

Barnet+0.03on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

75%

Salford City or Barnet

76%

Draw or Barnet

49%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

27%

Barnet wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

81%

Salford City 2+ goals

49%

Salford City 3+ goals

23%

Barnet 1+ goals

66%

Barnet 2+ goals

29%

Barnet 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

67%

Barnet (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Barnet defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.66

Barnet attack 1.40 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Salford City scores more

51%

level

24%

Barnet scores more

25%

Salford City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Grant

Salford City · M

8.6

Match Events

28'

Haji Mnoga

39'

R. Longelo-Mbule↳ J. Grant

45'

M. Butcher↳ C. Stockton

58'

A. Hartigan← D. Jaiyesimi

58'

B. Assombalonga← B. Winterburn

62'

B. Cooper← Z. Awe

77'

F. Borini← C. Stockton

77'

M. Shelton← C. Stead

77'

P. Chinedu← R. Crichlow-Noble

78'

P. Ehibhatiomhan← R. Longelo-Mbule

90+3'

Jorge Grant

90+5'

N. Siri← J. Grant

90+1'

O. Hawkins← R. Glover

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordBarnet

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots8

1.57Expected Goals (xG)0.32

4Corners8

8Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots8

6On Target1

2Off Target3

3Blocked4

10Inside Box6

1Outside Box2

Passing

40%Possession60%

286Total Passes419

144Accurate Passes265

50%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

5Offsides3

Match Recap: Salford City vs Barnet

Salford City beat Barnet 2-0 in League Two on March 7, 2026.

Goals: R. Longelo-Mbule (39'), M. Butcher (45').

Barnet controlled possession (60%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Peninsula Stadium in Salford.

Salford City vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Salford City vs Barnet