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Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
10/5/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 10The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Salford City40%
×Draw28%
AFC Wimbledon31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.23
AFC Wimbledon
1.05

Salford City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 70 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
AFC Wimbledon
0.96

allows per match

Salford City
1.15
AFC Wimbledon
1.07

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
69%
Salford City or AFC Wimbledon
72%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
60%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
18%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
71%
Salford City 2+ goals
35%
Salford City 3+ goals
13%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
65%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
28%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
56%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salford City scores more
40%
level
28%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
31%

Salford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon

Salford City beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 in League Two on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at The Peninsula Stadium in Salford, Greater Manchester.