Salford City 0–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

11/12/2022

League Two · Round 18The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Salford City41%

×Draw28%

AFC Wimbledon30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.03

Salford City

1.25

AFC Wimbledon

1.03

Salford City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 73 away

1.40

creates per match

0.93

1.14

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

AFC Wimbledon

0.93

allows per match

Salford City

1.14

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

70%

Salford City or AFC Wimbledon

72%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

59%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

18%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

71%

Salford City 2+ goals

36%

Salford City 3+ goals

13%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

64%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

28%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

58%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Salford City scores more

41%

level

28%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

30%

Salford City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. King

Salford City · G

8.0

Match Events

40'

Theo Vassell

40'

Paul Kalambayi

46'

K. Berkoe← R. Nartey

58'

C. Hendry← M. Dackers

58'

R. Watson← J. Jenkins

66'

D. Fisher← C. Senior

73'

M. Smith← M. Lund

78'

Luke Bolton

90+3'

Elliot Watt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordAFC

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots8

7Corners2

13Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target4

4Off Target2

4Blocked2

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

550Total Passes293

452Accurate Passes191

82%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0