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Salernitana vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Salernitana
Salernitana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
12/21/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 14Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Salernitana53%
×Draw25%
Virtus Entella21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salernitana
1.56
Virtus Entella
0.89

Salernitana creates 75% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 60 away

creates per match

Salernitana
1.49
Virtus Entella
0.68

allows per match

Salernitana
1.10
Virtus Entella
1.62

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par
Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw
79%
Salernitana or Virtus Entella
75%
Draw or Virtus Entella
47%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+
28%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals
79%
Salernitana 2+ goals
46%
Salernitana 3+ goals
21%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
59%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
22%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)
71%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.49 + Virtus Entella defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Virtus Entella attack 0.68 + Salernitana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Salernitana scores more
53%
level
25%
Virtus Entella scores more
21%

Salernitana at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Salernitana 2–1 Virtus Entella

Salernitana beat Virtus Entella 2-1 in Serie B on December 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Arechi in Salerno.